Irish Betting odds President of Ireland profit angle.

Sceala Philosopher Location: Kildare

Final update on the Irish Betting odds President of Ireland profit angle.
© Brian Whelan 2011
The broadcasting moratorium is now in place, however that is not going to stop the twitter and Irish discussion forums going on.
Their impact may well have some impact on President betting odds, but logic says - the only major move is one way - Gallagher to go further out in the betting.
I can see Gallagher going out to at least 6/1 in the betting by tomorrow mid day. Sean Gallagher's real odds are probably much higher, but without a poll that is now guesswork.
The real mystery now is turnout.
If the turnout is high Higgins should win by a considerable margin.
If the turnout is low! below 45% it becomes interesting, below 40% could be a game changer.
In those circumstances Martin McGuinness comes back into serious contention.
From historic Sinn Fein election results,( as relevant as we can factor in) we can historically estimate that McGuinness is assured the best part of 15% of the votes.
How many preferences will he get?
Will his core votes be solid, will they get out and vote in their usual high proportion?
Guess work.
The other outsider who may come in the odds is David Norris, he had a good performance on the last debate, but will that counter his awful campaign. It is extremely unlikely for Norris to better fourth place, let alone win. Norris is indelibly tainted with those letters.

But now we have assured profit, and a Higgins reliant considerable profit to likely win, further actions are about leveling some of the potential big profit from any credible or possible risks.
There are always risks in any event, so we will cover knowing we will still have over €600 profit on the very likely Higgins win.

Higgins remains without question the very likely winner. Paddy Power have him now at just 1/4 or 1.25
If we never used my betting plan, we would now need to risk €2400 to get a €600 return.
We risked (for a short period early on) just €80 for the same return. But now we have no downside and profits assured from every likely Irish Presidential candidate.

By doing these covers, we have all the remotely credible and wild possibles covered up for a healthy return.
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When Gallagher hits 6/1 and more, he will then rapidly fly out in the odds in punter panic. Many people have foolishly bet big on Gallagher on Paddy Powers. PP who were previously taking volume bets on Higgins before Gallagher, and before them both on Norris at ridiculously short odds.
Paddy Power have their profits assured, forget their P.R. claims of losing money.
Paddy Power bookmaker saw pre-tax profits rise 15% to £50.2m in the six months to 30 June, despite a so called "right bashing" at the Cheltenham Festival.

Don't lose sight of the objective, profit, forget morals or ethics of any candidate.
Use your vote for that.

Can the bookies tell us who is going to be the next President of Ireland.
Do we even care what they say? We should if we want to make a profit betting on the outcome.

Heard this funny and fair assessment about the Bookmakers, their betting odds and the Irish Presidential race.
What Paddy Power are doing with the betting odds on the next Irish President is - encouraging you to throw your money away. By pretending they are offering some betting odds value in outsiders chances of being the next President of Ireland.
This is not a horse race, where conditions or mayhem can play a significant part. Outsiders with big odds can win a horse race, but can never be President. Hands not hooves are needed for shaking dictators and strangers hands.
Ironically if it were a horse race, Ireland would be prosecuted for running such a old horse as Michael D Higgins.
And there could be a steward inquiry into Gallagher being proxy trained by Fine Fail.
Won't go into Fine Gael using such a obvious dope runner.

Paddy Power started off suggesting that Michael D Higgins had the Irish Presidency to lose.
Unless some dark secret was revealed about Higgins or he suddenly developed a bark or other tick, Higgins was going to be the next President of Ireland.
That has been obvious and consistent statement by default of the Irish Bookmakers from the start.

As we get closer to the election, the betting odds are changing. Sean Gallagher has now come in on the odds and all the others, David Norris, Dana, Martin McGuinness, Mary Davis and Gay Mitchell going out in the betting.

Current Betting odds on the next Irish President

Irish Betting odds President of Ireland angle.
The profit opportunity will be explained early this week, plenty of time to get the bet on and hopefully make some profit, and minimize risk of any loss.
profit angle[/b].
Update on Irish Betting odds President of Ireland profit angle.
We made our bet by laying Higgins at 1.40
As long as you took the safe advice to then bet Higgins as he rose above 2.5, you will now have a all green profit screen, regardless of who is the next President - you will pick up a profit.

Another opportunity now to follow.
Update monday 24th

What I chose to do with the risk / Profit
I laid Higgins €200 @ 1.40
Risk was 80 loss.
We did not back any/the other obvious candidate (Sean Gallagher) - because the unknown risk of how much of a outsider Martin McGuinness really was.
We can not be 100% convinced McGuinness can not win - (remember the point is betting profit - not our politics)
So we laid Higgins to spread the profit, giving us a 200 profit (less
Betfair's variable commission charge - high of 5%) on any candidate, and a €80 loss if Higgins won.
This shows net profit but actual loss risk. I have as stated before, chosen to wait until the last tv debate.
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The main point again
As long as you took the safe advice to bet some of the profit on Higgins as he rose above the predicted 2.5 you will now have a guaranteed profit (all green profit screen) regardless of who is the next President - you will pick up a profit.

I personally chose to wait a touch, and risk most of the profit.
Reasons why
The polls which have now encouraged Gallagher at 1.4 and less, are even crazier than the Higgins 1.40 and less

These new odds are based solely on the latest polls. Before those small sample polls came out on Friday 21st - Gallagher was over 3.0 and Higgins falling again below 2.0
Just like Higgins odds before, Gallagher now has false low odds, he has also gone low as Higgins 1.25 those odds are nonsensical.

I took these odds minutes ago
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I have placed the bulk of the possible profit to cover the Higgins risk, and to now back Higgins at high odds.
Also placed a small outside cover on McGuinness doing better- in a low turnout or other non factored event. Doubtful but still possible.
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This has turned out much better than predicted.
I believe the odds now are totally false for Gallagher, and it is still the two horse race with all to play for. Higgins is likely to get a high share of 2nd and 3rd preference votes.
Remember people can only follow trends not the future.
Higgins was as low as 1.23, there is no logic to the way has he gone out so far in odds.
Add in a lot of bad news coming out against Gallagher and the odds value are clearly out of line.
Voters will be wondering if Gallagher is really independent, many may not vote for Gallagher if they get any more doubts about his claimed independence. The media is going after him and his loyal Fine Fail history. That anti Gallagher news is not likely to go away.

If as expected Gallagher's odds go back out in the betting, and Higgins odds shorten before election day - we can adjust again to take some of the extra Higgins profit.
My betting feeling is Higgins is still going to win. Hence the action and hoped for profit.
Either way we can't lose any money now and are guaranteed a small profit.

The naive bet at Paddy Power, where the odds are judged for Paddy Powers guaranteed profits, they are not market or real rates.
The value is at Betfair

Paddy Power is useful for novelty bets that they may have misjudged. Otherwise avoid.
© Brian Whelan 2011
authorized user of my sole content is sceala.com

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Irish Betting odds President of Ireland profit angle.